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Technological development has been forcing the labour market to change already since the industrial revolution and the global economy has gone through several waves of technological development over the centuries with the help of economic innovation. But the developments of the last 10–15 years have been faster than the previous ones.

The introduction of automated solutions is already today reducing the number of jobs requiring routine low levels of skills and little cognitive skills. Even though future prospects suggest different volumes, then one thing is certain – the loss of routine jobs is only a matter of time in many fields.

This report is a bird’s-eye view of the main challenges and development perspectives of the Estonian labour market in the context of major and emerging global trends. The purpose of the report is to demonstrate what the Estonian labour market could become in the next decades in combination of the factors affecting us the most and what are the most important decision points emerging from the development trajectories already today.

The main impact factors in the scenario packages are the effects of technological development on the labour market and changes in labour migration in the European Union. The statuses of those factors influencing the framework of the scenarios are briefly referred to as ”employment-friendly technology development“, “technology development hostile towards employment“, “a more open EU towards labour migration“ and “a more closed EU towards labour migration“.

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Last updated: 13.03.2019

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