The goal of the foresight project is to highlight the significance of changes in global forces for Estonia’s development, and the consequent key dilemmas for decision-makers. For this purpose, we will involve experts to create alternative scenarios on changes in global forces up to the year 2035, mainly concentrating on developments in the fields of technology and energy.

The Foresight Centre study Changes in Global Forces and Their Significance for Estonia is a means to identify important decision-making points and stimulating discussion. The main options for decision-makers are highlighted, based on global developments.

The developments that affect changes in global forces are identified by analysing written sources directed at both the academia and the policy-shapers. The summary of literature and the scenarios created by different foresight teams are used to identify the key factors, the main indeterminates, by highlighting the similarities and the differences in scenarios regarding changes in global forces.

The expert discussions are then used as the basis for alternative scenarios until 2035, using the scenario building method (Schwartz 1991; Ramirez and Wilkinson 2016). In cooperation with experts, the lead committee and other parties, the significance of different scenarios for Estonia is determined and the main dilemmas accentuated.

The study is led by the Foresight Centre but is conducted in an international framework created for the purpose, involving top experts from Estonia and abroad.

The deadline for the analytical material of the project is May 2020.

Key research questions:

• What is the significance of the changes in global forces for Estonia in light of different scenarios?
• Which are the main dilemmas that the decision makers must take into account?

Webinars: 

• Webinar on Global Energy Futures – the Long View (12.05.2020)
• Webinar on Global Digital Futures (05.05.2020)
• Webinar on Alternative Futures for the Global Balance of Power (28.04.2020)